Only 42% of likely Democratic primary voters in the House district spanning Upper Manhattan and parts of The Bronx would vote for longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the primary election according to an internal poll from challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier.
Based on name recognition alone, voters picked Espaillat over Avila Chevalier 42% to 28%, according to results shared with THE CITY.
However, once respondents heard positive messaging about Avila Chevalier’s platform, the challenger’s campaign said, she leapfrogged the five-term incumbent 46% to 35%. Another Democratic candidate in the 13th Congressional District primary, Oscar Romero, comes in a distant third at 4%.
Pollster Upswing Research & Strategy quizzed 598 likely Democratic voters in the district from March 25 to March 30 via phone and text message. The poll has a 4% margin of error. Most polling experts caution against taking campaign-backed polls at face value, but as the first poll of NY-13 this cycle, it offers a useful snapshot of where voters stand two months ahead of the June 23 primary.
“These poll results show what we have long been feeling on the ground uptown and in the Bronx: that New Yorkers are hungry for change, and they know Darializa Avila Chevalier will deliver that change on June 23rd,” campaign manager Ilona Duverge said in a statement.
A spokesperson for Espaillat’s re-election campaign did not respond to THE CITY’s request for comment.
The poll results come on the heels of a strong week for Avila Chevalier. Her campaign outraised Espaillat in the first quarter of the year, bringing in $270,000 to his $230,000, according to campaign finance reports submitted to the Federal Elections Commission on April 15.
Espaillat is the only incumbent House member in the city to be out-raised by his opponent, Politico reported, though he has substantially more cash on hand than Avila Chevalier: $1 million to her $220,000.
Capitalizing on Mamdani’s Win
On Friday, the New York chapter of the United Auto Workers announced its endorsement of Avila Chevalier. She is a member of the union’s legal services local through her job at Neighborhood Defender Services of Harlem. She is on leave from that job, and from studying for a PhD at the CUNY Graduate Center, to focus on the campaign.
The 32-year-old launched her run against Espaillat in November, seeking to capitalize on Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s victory and the left’s growing clout in the district.
Her campaign is backed by the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats, the group that propelled U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-Queens/The Bronx) to victory in 2018, as well as several members of her left-leaning “squad” including former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, who endorsed Avila Chevalier.
Espaillat is considered the dean of Dominican elected officials in New York, widening the community’s power among Democrats in Manhattan and The Bronx, with NY-13 as its epicenter. Dominicans make up nearly half of all immigrants residing in the district. (Avila Chevalier was born in the U.S. to parents from the Dominican Republic.)
A Washington Heights Veteran
The 71-year-old incumbent has represented Washington Heights and Inwood for decades, first as a state senator and in Washington since 2016, as the chamber’s first Dominican-American — and first formerly undocumented immigrant — member.
Espaillat appears to have taken the threat from his left seriously: Earlier this year, Espaillat for the first time appeared at an endorsement forum hosted by Uptown Community Democrats, a political club aligned with his longtime rival, state Sen. Robert Jackson. Last week, he announced his campaign had collected a hefty 20,000 petition signatures.
Progressives have long sensed an opening in Upper Manhattan. The last time Espaillat faced a spirited primary, in 2020, he was re-elected with less than 60% of the vote, and growing pockets of the district have been trending towards the left. Mamdani won the district in the 2025 Democratic primary by double digit margins, even though Espaillat had backed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
